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人民币重回升值轨道

[日期:08-21] 来源:  作者: [字体: ]
  After a weak start to the year, China’s renminbi has stormed back as tactical intervention by the central bank has subsided, allowing market forces to reassert themselves.
  随着中国央行减小干预力度,市场力量再次发挥作用,年初一度大幅走弱的人民币汇率已重新走强。
  The currency fell for four straight months at the start of the year, its longest bear run since China established its modern foreign exchange market in 1994. But now a hefty trade surplus and renewed confidence in the macro economy are driving the market.
  人民币汇率今年开年后曾连续4个月下跌,创下自1994年中国成立现代外汇交易市场以来时间最长的熊市。然而,巨大的贸易顺差以及市场对中国宏观经济形势重燃信心,正推动人民币走强。
  At its 2014 low point of Rmb6.2593 per US dollar on April 30, the renminbi was down 3.4 per cent on the year, a disastrous performance by the standards of China’s tightly controlled currency, which has notched year-on-year gains every year since 1994 save for a small drop in 1999.
  今年4月30日,人民币对美元汇率创下2014年以来的最低点——1美元兑6.2593元人民币,从年初起累计下跌了3.4%。鉴于人民币受到严格管制,这样的下跌幅度相当显著。自1994年以来,除1999年曾小幅下跌以外,人民币一直在逐年升值。
  But the currency has now risen consecutively for three months and five sessions, and by yesterday’s close had trimmed its year-to-date loss to 1.4 per cent. Last week it strengthened beyond the psychologically important Rmb6.15 barrier.
  但从5月起,人民币已连续3个月上涨,并连涨了5个交易日。以周二收盘价计,人民币今年迄今的跌幅已缩窄为1.4%。且兑美元汇率在上周突破了6.15这个重要心理关口。
  Early this year traders observed what they believed to be the People’s Bank of China buying dollars to weaken the currency and inflict pain on speculators who had come to regard renminbi appreciation as a sure bet.
  今年初,外汇交易员们判断,中国央行通过购买美元压低了人民币汇率,目的是教训那些一直认为人民币只会单向升值的投机者。
  Yu Yongding, a former member of the PBoC’s Monetary Policy Committee, told state media in May it was “difficult to imagine” that the renminbi could have fallen 3 per cent without intervention, given that China had posted surpluses on the current and capital acc?ounts in the first quarter.
  曾任中国央行货币政策委员会委员的余永定今年5月向官方媒体表示,鉴于一季度中国经常账户和资本账户均出现盈余,“难以想象”在没有干预的情况下人民币会贬值3%。
  The PBoC’s anti-speculation message got through to import-export companies, whose forex activity largely determines the currency’s trajectory given tight restrictions still in place on cross-border portfolio investment.
  央行打击投机的决心,也影响到进出口企业。鉴于跨境证券投资仍受严格限制,进出口企业的外汇活动很大程度上决定着人民币的走向。
  “Normally the trade surplus creates appreciation pressure as corporates sell dollars and buy renminbi,” says Eddie Cheung, forex strategist with Standard Chartered in Hong Kong. “But in the first part of the year corporates lost confidence in the appreciation story and started holding their foreign trade receipts in dollar deposits rather than converting.”
  “正常情况下,贸易顺差会造成升值压力,因为企业会卖出美元,买进人民币,”香港渣打银行(Standard Chartered)外汇策略师Eddie Cheung说。“但在今年上半年,企业对升值前景失去信心,开始以美元存款的形式持有外贸收入,而不再兑换为人民币。”
  Indeed, foreign exchange deposits at onshore Chinese banks rose $155bn in the first half of 2014, far above the $32bn gain for the whole of 2013.
  今年上半年,中国境内中资银行的外汇储蓄增加了1550亿美元,远远超过2013年全年的增量320亿美元。
  Before the PBoC’s action the lure of risk-free forex gains – which came on top of interest rates on renminbi assets higher than the rock-bottom yields in developed markets – had made dollar and euro carry trades an attractive prospect for those who could execute them.
  在央行加强干预之前,单向押注于人民币升值看上去没有风险,再加上人民币资产的利率远高于发达市场处于极低水平的利率,使得美元和欧元套利交易显得十分有吸引力——对有办法进行这类操作的人来说。
  China’s capital controls prevent punters from directly pouring money into domestic financial markets, but creative speculators have long devised ways to skirt them.
  中国长期的资本管制使得投机者无法直接将资金投入境内金融市场,但投机者早就想出了规避的办法。
  One popular method was to inflate export invoices on difficult-to-value goods such as electronic circuits, in order to book speculative cash as trade receipts and convert dollars to renminbi under the current account.
  一个流行做法是虚开一些难以估值的商品(如电子电路)的出口发票,从而将投机性资金记为贸易收入,然后在经常账户下将美元兑换成人民币。
  But once the currency had weakened beyond Rmb6.25, traders say, the PBoC reversed and began guiding it stronger, probably fearing that excessive depreciation would undermine confidence and lead to capital outflow.
  然而,交易员们表示,人民币兑美元汇率跌破6.25关口后,中国央行立刻转变了策略,开始引导人民币走强,原因很可能是担心人民币贬值幅度过大会削弱信心,引发资本外逃。
  Since 2012, central bank officials have said they intend to reduce intervention in the foreign exchange market. In March, regulators doubled the currency’s daily trading band to 2 per cent on either side of the daily guidance rate published by the PBoC.
  自2012年以来,中国央行官员屡次表示要减少干预外汇市场。今年3月,央行将人民币日交易波动区间扩大一倍,规定单日人民币兑美元汇率可在当日央行公布的中间价上下浮动2%。
  But the rhetoric of liberalisation has contrasted with the reality of intervention.
  不过,尽管央行口头上承诺自由化,实际上仍在暗中干预。
  “When the PBoC talks about reducing intervention, that’s going to happen gradually,” says a forex trader at a Chinese commercial bank in Shanghai.
  “当央行谈到减少干预的时候,这个过程是渐进的,”上海某中资商业银行的一位外汇交易员说。
  Nevertheless, the PBoC’s withdrawal from the market has restored fundamental supply and demand forces to the driver’s seat.
  尽管如此,央行从市场上撤出,使供需基本面因素重新成为市场的驾驭者。
  Government efforts to stabilise economic growth, which helped deliver solid 7.5 per cent GDP growth in the second quarter, boosted confidence in the economy.
  政府的稳增长措施帮助二季度经济实现7.5%增速,提振了市场对经济的信心。
  Ironically, however, signs of weakness in the domestic economy are also helping to drive renminbi?appreciation. Demand for Chinese exports has been strong as the US economy gathers steam, while imports have lagged behind on weak domestic demand. That has increased the trade surplus.
  不过,有趣的是,中国国内经济走弱的迹象也在推动人民币升值。随着美国经济增长势头增强,中国的出口需求强劲,而进口因国内需求疲弱而相对逊色。这增加了贸易顺差。
  The current account surplus peaked at 10.1 per cent of GDP in 2007 and has since fallen for five of the past six years, hitting 2 per cent in 2013. But China posted its largest monthly trade surplus on record in July, and it is up 20 per cent in the first seven months of 2014 compared with the same period in 2013.
  2007年,中国的经常账户盈余达到峰值,占到GDP的10.1%。此后6年,这个比例在5年之中都下降了,在2013年降至2%。但在今年7月,中国创下有纪录以来最大规模的月度贸易顺差。2014年头7个月的贸易顺差同比增长了20%。
  Traders expect the renminbi to appreciate until the end of the year to about Rmb6.05. After that the picture gets murky. Once the US Fed begins raising interest rates, some money that had chased high yields in China is likely to exit.
  目前交易员预测人民币年内将持续升值,到年底达到1美元兑6.05元人民币左右。之后的走势则不太明朗。一旦美联储(US Fed)开始提高利率,一些在中国境内追逐高收益率的资金可能会撤出。
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